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What Drives Public Trust in the Military in Non-Democracies: Evidence from Libya (2014-2019)
Abstract by Dr. Yasmina Abouzzohour
Coauthors: Tarik M. Yousef
On Session V-28  (Public Opinion and Participation in MENA Countries)

On Friday, November 3 at 1:30 pm

2023 Annual Meeting

Abstract
This article investigates the conditions that lead to heightened trust in the military in non-democracies through an empirical study of post-2011 Libya, where support for the military remains an unexplored cause and consequence of the stalled political transition after Muammar Qadhafi's regime collapse in 2011. Building on the political science and sociology literatures on institutional trust in non-democratic contexts, we generate a set of hypotheses linking public trust in the military to personal safety, interest in politics, Islamist orientation, trust in political institutions, regionalism, and support for democracy. We empirically examine the hypotheses using survey data collected by the Arab Barometer between 2014 and 2019 to explore the correlates of public trust in the armed forces. Our findings show there is a confluence of factors driving trust in the military in Libya, pointing to regional, generational, educational, and class divides. Interest in politics and preference for democracy also correlate with greater trust in the military. Personal safety is a significant driver of trust in the military, suggesting that the institution of the army is viewed as a protector of what remains of the state or as a relief pitcher responsible for ensuring safety. Most significantly, Easterners trust the military more than other Libyans, which may be related to the role and behavior of the eastern-based, self-proclaimed Libyan National Army. Our paper contributes to the sparse data-driven body of work on trust in the military in non-democracies, backsliding and autocratization in conflict countries, and political attitudes in Libya.
Discipline
Political Science
Sociology
Geographic Area
Arab States
Libya
Maghreb
Sub Area
None