Abstract
Turkish foreign policy (TFP) has experienced several changes and u-turns in recent decades. When the international system changed from the Cold War to the post-Cold War era, this created new uncertainties and affected numerous economic and political interests. New economic ties and political sensitivities emerged to interact with and shape the constellation of domestic interests. Demands for revised borders or new states in Eurasia and beyond have made national and tribal identities regain legitimacy and relevance. Under the driving force of economic interests and re-surfacing ethno-religious identities, governments began to change their foreign policy orientations and foreign political relations.
Turkey, situated in the hub of three of the most volatile regions of the world (the Middle East, the Balkans, the post-Soviet space) was immediately influenced by these changes. Ethnic nationalist (mainly but not exclusively Kurdish) and religious (pious Sunni) demands began to mobilize large swathes of its population. Under their influence, the country has both become more polarized and drifted further to a more conservative, nationalist mentality. Previous foreign policy orientations were increasingly questioned, and the images of the US, Europe, the West more generally began to shift. Many Turkish voters and political actors embraced anti-Western, anti-American, anti-European and anti-NATO discourses. With the erosion of the alliance structures and rigid ties of the Cold War, Turkish economic ties also began to change as corporations began to explore alternative markets in the South, North and East of the country, complementing those of the West.
This paper sets out to chart the role that domestic political developments played in the evolution of TFP and the re-making of Turkey’s foreign relations, in particular how they have helped fray Turkey’s ties with the West. It will use available survey data and multivariate analysis to explore how public opinion has evolved on Turkey’s ties with the EU, US, and Middle Eastern countries, and evaluate the effect that the public plays in the general contours of TFP.
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