MESA Banner
Crafting a Geo-sampling Model for Nineteenth-Century Analysis of Agricultural Production in Ottoman Regions
Abstract
This paper introduces an innovative geospatial methodology that strategically samples locations within Ottoman subdistricts using population and geophysical data. Analyzing tax survey data from these selected settlements, the study aims to derive precise estimates for the total cultivation area per region/district in the mid-nineteenth-century Ottoman Empire, offering insights into historical agricultural practices. The economic and population geography of the Ottoman Empire has been historically underexplored due to a lack of microdata. Recently accessible mid-nineteenth-century Ottoman tax (temettuat) surveys and population (nüfus) registers provide unprecedented economic and demographic microdata on a per-location basis, presenting a valuable opportunity for comprehensive analysis. Despite the increasing integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) into Ottoman studies, economic historians have yet to systematically organize and harness the distinctive individual-level data available from these sources, resulting in a notable gap in spatial analysis within historical research. Given the predominantly rural nature of the Empire’s population geography, this deficiency has hampered comprehensive analyses of agricultural practices crucial to subsistence and Ottoman economic performance. Essential details, such as the precise distribution of the population, occupational structures, and specifics regarding cultivation before the twentieth century, remain unknown. To address this gap, population and tax data are crucial. While detailed data from population registers and tax surveys are available for each settlement, the sheer volume necessitates a strategic statistical sampling approach. This paper proposes a novel geo-sampling strategy for Ottoman subdistricts, leveraging select representative settlements. Using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within the ArcGIS ecosystem, the methodology considers agricultural suitability based on elevation, ruggedness, and soil quality. Connectivity is also factored in, favoring settlements within a 500-meter radius of historical roads. Additionally, the selection accounts for subdistrict-level population size from the population registers, ensuring that the chosen villages collectively represent at least 5% of the subdistrict's total population. This methodology overcomes the challenge of processing extensive data by focusing on key parameters. To illustrate the results, the paper will estimate the total grain cultivation area per subdistrict in the Bursa region in northwestern Anatolia, with diverse geophysical features and livelihood systems, housing approximately 200 thousand people in 591 populated places in twelve subdistricts. This example showcases the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology in revealing crucial insights into the economic landscape of the Ottoman Empire, where grain cultivation and consumption were at the crux.
Discipline
History
Geographic Area
Anatolia
Sub Area
None