MESA Banner
Turkey in the 21st Century: A Rising, Revisionist Power?
Abstract
Turkey under the AKP has pursued a more confident, activist, and diversified foreign policy. In the first decade of the new century, one of its primary tenets was “Zero Problems with Neighbors,” which featured constructive engagement in the Middle East, Balkans, and the post-Soviet space and was designed to complement Turkey’s longstanding pro-Western orientation. Indeed, Western powers initially encouraged this venture and the emergence of Turkish “soft power” to foster regional cooperation. In the 2010s, however, Turkish foreign policy has encountered a number of setbacks, particularly in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and relations with both Europe and the United States have sunk to new lows. This paper takes Turkey’s rise and more independent foreign policy orientation as a starting point, and assesses how far it goes, specifically with respect to adopting a revisionist stance that challenges the regional order. It will be grounded by a brief consideration of the historical context and motivations of Turkey’s traditional foreign policy orientation and the literature in international relations on “rising powers.” It focuses primary attention on relations with the United States, important regional actors in the Middle East (Egypt, Israel, and Iraq), and Russia, the country that has most assertively challenged the West. It critically assesses the argument, made by some Turkish scholars, that although Turkey is adopting a more independent course, its policies remain fundamentally constrained by or “nested” within its ties with the West. It argues that while part of Turkey’s apparent realignment may be explained by frustration with its Western allies, there are other factors involved, including domestic political ones that question decades-old positions of Westernization, that justify a more sober and pessimistic view about Turkey’s Western orientation.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Turkey
Sub Area
Foreign Relations