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Will Green Movement succeed? The Challenge of Democratization under Iran's Neo-conservatives
Abstract
Iran's democratic demands over the past century have proceeded in three major waves. Iran's first wave (1820s-1911), the second wave (1950-1953) and the third wave (1977-present). The third wave began with the Revolution (1977-1979), was interrupted by the post-revolutionary politics, was revived in the 1997 Movement (Khatami's government), was reversed in 2005 (Iran's neo-conservatives power, Ahmadinejad), and again was revived in the current Green Democratic Movement (since June 2009 election). This paper examines whether the current Green Democratic Movement is capable of materializing Iran's a century-old quest for democracy What structural and agential factors contribute to the success and/or failure of Iran's Green Movemente A major controversy in democratization literature revolves around the issue of agency and structure. This paper keeps an equal distance from vulgar voluntarism and structural determinism to examine the dialectal interactions between structural and agential factors and their ability to help or hinder democratization in Iran's Green Movement. The paper provides an operational definition of structure and agency by subdividing each into three levels of analysis. The structural factors are measured by reviewing the institutional structure of the Iranian state (political level), Iran's uneven development (socio-economic level), and the global structure of power (international level). The agential factors, both in terms of reform and the counter-reform, are examined in terms of the leadership capability (individual level), the organizational arrangements (institutional level), and the intellectual discourse (cultural-ideological level). The findings (fieldwork and context analysis) suggest that Iran's democratization is surrounded by a number of domestic and international obstacles: Iran's oil-centered rentier state, the populist discourses employed by Iran's neo-conservatives who are blessed by powerful institutions and favorable structural conditions (social injustice), the realpolitik of the international politics (puts democracy next to the security concerns by focusing on Iran's nuclear issue not democracy), and the weakness of the leadership, well-organized civil society institutions, and inclusive and engaging political discourse on the part of the reformists. However, Iran's future prospect is optimistic due to the following elements: a radial epistemic shift in Iran's political culture (non-violence, the slogan of "where is my vote" not "where is my gun", celebrating pluralism, co-existence of religious and secular agents), a serious factional politics at the top of the political establishment, and a vibrant civil society due to the radial demographic/structural change. For all these reasons the Green Movement will most likely succeed to bring in a "democracy from within" in the mid-term.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Iran
Sub Area
Democratization