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The Maghreb: A Partner in Cross-Regional Competition or a Pawn in the Global Economic Reordering?
Abstract
Except Libya’s and Algeria's hydrocarbons, the Maghreb is largely resource-poor and has faced economic difficulties while eschewing the benefits of regional integration. Difficult economic conditions and high youth unemployment persistently threaten regional stability. The Libyan and Tunisia leaders were overthrown by protests—and a NATO intervention—but Morocco and Algeria weathered the storm thanks to a semi-authoritarian governance, mighty security apparatuses, increased social spending to keep social peace, and patronage networks. However, the Maghrebi states were not spared by external shocks—e.g., recurring global recessions, commodity price volatility, and the Covid-19 pandemic—which reduced exports revenues, increased import costs, curtailed tourism, and reversed economic growth. Global geostrategic and economic changes since the 1990s did not spare North Africa and include the increased economic presence of Russia, China, Turkey and Arab Gulf countries. Notwithstanding the interdependence of economics and politics, this paper will focus primarily on the impact of global and transregional economic dynamics on the Maghreb. It will look particularly at the interplay of key economic actors including the European Union, France, Spain, China, Russia, the United States, GCC countries and Turkey. The paper will examine the extent to which Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, through trade and investment, are able to steer the interest of new and old global partners toward fulfilling these Maghreb countries’ growth and development goals, including job creation, energy independence, export diversification, and increased outward investment opportunities. The paper will also discuss the extent to which the Maghreb states can resist extra-regional ploys aiming to use them as pawns in the shifting formations of global economic competition. It will argue that, given their dire need for capital, foreign investment and export outlets, and short of implementing cleaver strategies, they may fall prey to the external actors’ designs, and that their integration into the global economy may exacerbate inequality and increase the political costs of the ensuing social tensions. This argument will be tested by examining the Maghrebi foreign economic policies and the goals of external economic powers in North Africa. An IPE approach will reveal how external constraints feed into domestic dynamics with undesirable outcomes. The neoclassical growth theory will be used in the Maghrebi cases to debunk some of its own premises and predictions. This study will draw on data and information collected in field works done in Morocco and Algeria in 2018-19 and will use 1990-2020 UNCTAD, UNDP, OECD, IMF and World Bank data.
Discipline
International Relations/Affairs
Geographic Area
Maghreb
Sub Area
None