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Coups, Conspiracies, and Credibility: Experimental Evidence from Turkey
Abstract
Under what conditions does conspiratorial rhetoric sway voters? I investigate this question using an original survey with embedded experiments deployed in Turkey shortly following the 2016 attempted coup. The results suggest that exposure to conspiratorial rhetoric that victimizes a politician and blames outsiders significantly increases respondents' levels of trust for the political victim during times of high perceived threat and uncertainty. Specifically, Turkish respondents who are primed with conspiratorial information about the Gulen Movement and the United States are more likely to report that they trust President Erdogan. The treatment is particularly strong among respondents with low political knowledge. The boost in support for Erdogan remains significant when restricted to members of the political opposition, demonstrating that widespread dissemination of out-group conspiracy theories can broaden politicians' support.
Discipline
Political Science
Geographic Area
Turkey
Sub Area
None