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The Consequences of the Failed Iraqi Kurdistan Referendum

Panel 038, sponsored byAhmed Foundation of Kurdish Studies, 2018 Annual Meeting

On Friday, November 16 at 11:00 am

Panel Description
Amidst much hope and celebration, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq called a referendum for September 25, 2017 on whether or not its government should open negotiations with the Iraqi Government in Baghdad over eventual KRG independence. This move had long been broached; indeed, two unofficial referenda held in 2004 and again in 2005 almost unanimously called for independence despite the opposition of the main Kurdish leaders who had argued then that independence would not be practical given strong regional opposition. However, this time Massoud Barzani, the president of the KRG, called for an official referendum, and despite unexpectedly strong opposition from the United States, Baghdad, and other regional governments, persisted, but with disastrous results. Thus, as a fallout from the KRG referendum, Iraqi forces with strong Iranian support and Turkish and U.S. compliance, quickly occupied Kirkuk and other disputed territories, closed the KRG's two international airports in Irbil and Sulaymaniya, and took over the KRG's border crossings, among others. Massoud Barzani resigned as KRG president, and the Kurdish region was thrown from the heights of ambition to the depths of failure. Clearly, the KRG had overreached and badly miscalculated in including Kirkuk and other disputed territories in the referendum in an overly ambitious attempt to unilaterally implement Iraqi Constitution Article 140 on the future of the disputed city and territories. The failure to put up even a fight for Kirkuk, also illustrated continuing Kurdish disunity despite the KRG's existence since 1992 and further that the Kurds had grossly exaggerated their military power. The purpose of this panel is to analyze how this Kurdish disaster occurred, and what the future holds. Is this a return to the earlier total defeat of 1975 or a lesser setback? What new KRG strategies are possible in the post-referendum era? The papers for this panel will be based on primary sources gathered through field work in Iraqi Kurdistan, interviews with important actors including the KRG leaders, and a close culling of the Kurdish, regional, and international press as well as secondary works. At this time, the tentative conclusion is that the current de-facto, anti-KRG alliance between Iran, Turkey, Iraq, and the United States, makes for strange bedfellows and is not likely to last because of their inherent differences.
Disciplines
International Relations/Affairs
Participants
  • Dr. Michael M. Gunter -- Presenter
  • Dr. David Romano -- Presenter
  • Vera Eccarius-Kelly -- Organizer, Presenter, Chair
  • Mehmet Gurses -- Presenter
Presentations
  • Vera Eccarius-Kelly
    In the aftermath of the Kurdistan Referendum, deep fissures between various Kurdish diaspora organizations in Europe, the US, and Canada emerged once again. The DC based KRG(Kurdistan Regional Government)lobby fell short in advancing its goals in part because it lacked a systematic outreach effort to cultivate and grow support among a range of diaspora groups. Growing criticism of the KRG's patriarchal leadership also indicated that a generational aspect creates pressures on diaspora groups. This paper relies on new interviews carried out in 2018 to highlight how the various branches of Kurdish diaspora organizations have reflected on past mistakes and why they pursue different mobilization strategies today (in Europe and the US/Canada). Ethnographic narratives contribute to a more complex scholarly understanding of the construction and fluidity of a variety of Kurdish identities and political motivations in the diaspora. The main question under consideration is how diaspora activists shape political dimensions of Kurdishness by purposefully selecting specific protest and lobby strategies.
  • Dr. Michael M. Gunter
    One does not need to be a confirmed Turkophobe or Kurdophile to see something has gone badly amiss with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s over-all Kurdish policies and specifically with his self-defeating, negative reaction to the advisory referendum on independence held by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) on 25 September 2017. This rings all the more true given Erdogan’s earlier actions towards ameliorating the Kurdish problem to the mutual benefit of both Turkey and the Kurds. Why this unfortunate contretemps? As a fallout from the negative interpretation Turkey, Iran, and Iraq gave the KRG referendum, Iraqi forces with strong Iranian support and Turkish and U.S. compliance, quickly occupied Kirkuk and other disputed territories, closed the KRG’s two international airports in Irbil and Sulaymaniya, and took over the KRG’s border crossings, among others. Massoud Barzani resigned as KRG president, and the Kurdish region was thrown from the heights of ambition to the depths of failure. This paper will analyze the background to Erdogan’s actions regarding the KRG and why he then turned against his supposed de facto ally, the KRG. This paper will be based mainly on field work and interviews in Turkey and northern Iraq, as well as media coverage and various scholarly works. The tentative conclusion is that while seemingly propping up his position in the short run, Erdogan has slid back into a failed past of opposing legitimate Kurdish goals, instead of his earlier promising position of leading and thus guiding them in ways that would be successful for Turkey.
  • Dr. David Romano
    There is no question that Kurdistan Regional Government former President Massoud Barzani's decision to hold a referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, turned out very badly for the Iraqi Kurds. The aftermath of the referendum saw regional powers united against them while no allies, including the United States, came to their defense. The Kurdish front also fell prey to internal divisions, resulting in a retreat from disputed areas held by the Kurds and their repossession by Baghdad. Critics of the Barzanis present the referendum move as a move destructive to the Kurdish national interest, aimed at shoring up Mr. Barzani's political legitimacy rather than achieving anything for the Kurdish nation in Iraq. This paper assesses the strategic rationality of the referendum move, attempting to judge it not by the results (given that any risky move in international relations can turn out well or badly), but rather by the standard of information available to KRG decision makers prior to Sept.25 and the "national interest" of Kurds in Iraq.
  • Mehmet Gurses
    The literature on the transnational aspect of armed conflict points to ethnic ties that transcend national boundaries as a source of war as well as peace. The Kurds, as the fourth largest nation in the Middle East, are divided between four Middle Eastern states, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Their century-long struggle for recognition came to partial realization with the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the United States-led coalition. This was followed by the de-facto Kurdish autonomous region in the north gaining official recognition in Iraq’s new constitution. The rise of the Islamic States (IS) in Iraq and Syria in 2014 and the failure of Iraqi and Syrian central governments to stand against the IS turned the Kurds in these two countries into indispensable on-the-ground partners in the fight against radical Islam. As a result of their alliance with the United States, the Kurds managed to strengthen their position and expand the size of territory under their control. Significantly, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq took this opportunity to seize other Kurdish inhabited parts of the country, most notably the oil-rich town of Kirkuk, which had been a source of tensions between Iraqi central government and the KRG since the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime. The KRG, in an attempt to legitimize and cement these gains, called for a referendum on September 25, 2017. What was meant to initiate a peaceful divorce from Iraq quickly turned into an utter failure. The Iraqi national army backed by Iran and Shiite militias ran over the Kurdish defenses and re-took the control of Kirkuk and other disputed areas. In this paper, building on the existing literature on the trans-border nature of armed conflict, I examine the potential consequences of this failed attempt at independence. What is the prospect for a unified KRG? What does this failed attempt tell us about the nation and state building capacity of the Kurds in Iraq? How can this failure affect Kurdish aspirations for recognition in Syria, Turkey, and Iran?