Iran Looks East: Dynamics of a Shift in Orientation
Panel V-08, 2024 Annual Meeting
On Wednesday, November 13 at 11:30 am
Panel Description
Iranian foreign policy has in recent years taken a sharp turn toward the east. Diplomatic and military ties with Russia have tightened; economic and cultural connections to the People's Republic of China have strengthened; Iran has become more active than ever in the South Caucasus and Southeast Asia; and Tehran has committed to becoming a full member of both the PRC-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Russia-PRC-India-inspired BRICS grouping. Why this broad shift in orientation has occurred and why it is taking place now remain in dispute. Alternative perspectives that address the sources and possible implications of the ongoing Look East initiative will be offered here, with a particular focus on the South Caucasus and Southeast Asia.
Iran's "Look East" policy entails more than burgeoning relations with the People's Republic of China, India and the former Soviet republics of Central Eurasia. Crucial to the Islamic Republic's eastward turn are its recent overtures to Indonesia, which include not only diplomatic and economic initiatives but also a cluster of joint military projects. Why Tehran has stepped up its efforts to align with Jakarta can provisionally be explained in terms of recent moves by the Arab Gulf states, most notably the United Arab Emirates, along with Iran's expressed sympathy for Indonesia's long-standing commitment to non-alignment.
This framing paper explores the broader analytical framework and context within which Iranian foreign policy and international relations has steadily tilted eastward; the structural and policy causes of the policy of looking East; and the consequences of the policy, which includes unprecedented levels of close military cooperation with Russia, deep economic and diplomatic relations with China, membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and accession to the BRICS group.
Iran’s Look East Policy seeks to advance its security, to enable the country to serve as a corridor linking the Global South to Central Asia, the Caucasus and Far East Asia. But recently, the Pentagon declared Iran, along with Russia, to be a major global challenge. In addition, there are two major regional conflicts brewing in Iran’s northern borders, i.e. the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and the war in Ukraine. Russia, the West, Israel and Iran are embroiled in these conflicts.
This paper offers an overview of Iran’s regional foreign policy in its immediate north, and its threat perceptions. The research will include an analysis of primary sources in Iran explaining the country’s foreign policy toward Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, immediate Iranian security and military concerns in the north, and how Tehran has addressed those concerns since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 and the flare up of a major conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in September 2022.
The paper will present a theoretical framework to explain how Iranian policies toward Armenia- Azerbaijan and Ukraine have shifted between the principles of proactive neutrality and offensive realism designed to secure Iran’s northern borders from external threats. The paper concludes by reviewing the role that the Russian-Iranian partnership plays to address those threats, their impact on Iranian-Russian relations, and possible wider implications for Iran’s Look East policy.
Engaged in a devastating war with Iraq, Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Vilayati paid an official visit to Malaysia in the early 1980s. Isolated internationally, Iran could rely on only a few countries for recognition and partnership. It quickly looked to Malaysia, a post-colonial, neutral and developing nation, under the leadership of upcoming Asian powerhouse, Mahathir Mohamad. Building on relations established during the Pahlavi era, this symbolic visit to the Southeast Asian country revealed Iran’s reliance on smaller nations during times of crisis. While attention has been given to Iran’s relations with more prominent Asian nations such as China, India and Pakistan, Tehran’s diplomatic ties with Malaysia is less known, but offers important insights into Iran’s realist approach to foreign relations. This research seeks to understand the paradoxes in this relationship, which on the surface should not work as well as it does. Malaysia has close relations with the West, Arab countries and most strikingly, has banned Shi’ism as a form of Islamic practise for its citizens. However, ties have remained relatively stable with strong diplomatic relations, open trade, and interest in cultural ties, despite global Shi’i – Sunni tensions and Western pressure. This paper explores the consistencies in bilateral ties and offers a historical perspective to Malaysian Iranian relations while exploring the enduring nature of the political relationship.