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The South in the Yemeni Conflict

Panel 046, sponsored byAmerican Institute for Yemeni Studies (AIYS), 2017 Annual Meeting

On Sunday, November 19 at 10:30 am

Panel Description
This panel will explore the new political and social developments in the south in order to chart the possible contours of the new southern Yemeni landscape. In 2007 the Hirak, or southern movement, emerged with a clear political agenda for political autonomy but without a coherent leadership. In 2012 following the fall of the Saleh regime, Hadi's transitional government installed southerners in key leadership positions in Yemen's government, but most southerners remained very wary of Hadi's government and largely boycotted the National Dialogue Conference that created the proposed federal Yemeni state. The Houthi coup in late 2014 and the military onslaught of the Houthi Saleh forces on Aden in the spring of 2015 dramatically transformed the southern political landscape. The emergence of the southern resistance brought new leaders to the fore, the Emirati reconstruction of the southern security apparatus is building the foundations of new leadership in the governorates, and the Hadi government in Aden is vying for legitimacy in the south for the national government. These developments have dramatically transformed the southern political landscape in yet unknown ways. The panel aims to clarify some of these new developments in the south.
Disciplines
Geography
Participants
  • Dr. Charles P. Schmitz -- Organizer, Presenter
  • Mr. Thanos Petouris -- Presenter
  • Dr. Elisabeth Kendall -- Presenter
Presentations
  • Dr. Elisabeth Kendall
    Yemen’s eastern-most governorate of al-Mahra was a part of the former South Yemen. But how does this vast and marginalised region of Yemen actually envisage its political future? Attitudes inside al-Mahra are complex and strained with both neighbouring Hadramawt and with the broader notion of a new South Yemen. This presentation addresses three main questions. First, why is Yemen’s vast but sparsely populated eastern-most region – neglected both academically and politically – important? Second, what do survey data collected in 2012-13 tell us about Mahri political aspirations? Third, what organisational initiatives have Mahris developed over the past three years to start addressing their concerns for the future? Recent initiatives, especially among youth and women, have been generated largely by internal pressures and arisen instinctively - without the catalyst of social media or the intervention of international NGOs. These initiatives have significance both as potential models for other sidelined regions of Yemen and as mechanisms for grass-roots engagement to stabilise communities and counter violent extremism.
  • Mr. Thanos Petouris
    The aim of this paper is to explore the profound political and social changes that have taken place in the southern provinces of Yemen after the start of the Saudi coalition intervention of March 2015. Since 2007, southern grievances against the Salih regime have been politicised through the activity of the Southern Movement, or al-Hirak. Originally, the movement was dominated by political figures with a long history in the affairs of the former PDRY, and its ruling Socialist party. Although full independence for the South has remained the main goal of al-Hirak, its lack of cohesion and the nature of conditions on the ground has prevented it from enjoying the same level of support across the whole of the former PDRY. This has meant that during the so-called “transitional process” Southern society remained underrepresented and increasingly alienated from the decision-making processes taking place in Sana`a. During the Huthi/Salih aggression on the South, which culminated in the two-month siege of Aden, al-Hirak militia participated in the struggle, forming what they called the Southern Resistance against the ‘northern invaders’. Their participation in the armed struggle altered the character of the movement, not least through the emergence of a younger, ‘second-tier’ leadership from among its activists, and the gradual sidelining of its historic, but exiled leaders. A lot of these young activists have been assassinated or silenced over the past two years, resulting in the relative weakening of al-Hirak, whose influence is being gradually replaced by Salafi militia originating in the rural hinterland of Aden. Since its liberation from the Huthi/Salih forces, Aden has remained under dual control by militia loyal to president Hadi and those backed by the UAE, and the local political and actual struggle has turned into a battle of supremacy between the government-in-exile and foreign-backed groups. At the same time, areas of the eastern provinces, particularly Hadhramaut, that did not experience hostilities, have slipped in and out of control by AQAP militants, and have been nominally administered by a local tribal council. This paper will provide an up-to-date analysis of the configuration of political actors in the South, explain the ways in which both the Huthi/Salih aggression and the Saudi coalition intervention have altered social dynamics across the southern provinces of Yemen, and explore potential short-term prospects.
  • Dr. Charles P. Schmitz
    Salafism grew rapidly in southern Yemen over the last two decades, but its impact on the south is relatively unexplored. This paper will attempt to delimit the nature of Salafist ideas in the south and explore the sociopolitical dimensions of Salafism in southern Yemen. Salafism encompasses a broad spectrum of ideas that encompasses both Muhammad Abdu’s engagement with modernity and rigid attacks on the traditional corpus of Muslim thought. Delimiting the particular ideas common to Salafism in southern Yemen and their diversity within is a helpful start in understanding the Salafist south. Salafism also has an important sociopolitical dimension in the south. Salafist schools became very popular in the south among the young after the war of 1994, and in the current war, Salafists and Salafi leaders have played important roles in the military conflict. However, Salafism is associated with both a conservative adherence to existing political leaders and a revolutionary rejection of existing social order. In the southern context, Salafism appears not to form a single sociopolitical bloc, but to comprise diverse and sometimes contradictory political positions. Some Salafist leaders have taken strongly to the southern separatist cause, and others are strongly allied with the Hadi coalition and are fighting in the north as far as Saada. This paper will explore the diversity of Salafist positions in trying to assess the impact of Salafism in the southern scene.