Beyond Pragmatism: Exploring the Political and Ideological Bases for the Improving Russian-Turkish Relationship Russia and Turkey have long been geopolitical rivals, and in 2015 the Syrian war brought them to the brink of military conflict. Since then, however, there has been a discernible rapprochement, evidenced in energy cooperation, arms deals, and coordination of activities in Syria. At the same time, US-Turkish relations have reached new lows, due to, among other factors, US support for Syrian Kurds, Fethullah Gülen’s residency in the United States, and US court cases against some of President Erdo?an’s allies. An important question, therefore, is what to make of Turkish-Russian cooperation and what it means in terms of overall Turkish foreign policy. Some suggest there is little reason to be alarmed, as Turkey is ensconced in a variety of Western institutions and will always view Russia with suspicion (Özcan et al 2017). This line of reasoning, however, may underappreciate broader shifts in the geopolitical environment, including Turkey’s disenchantment with the West and Russia’s resurgence and demonstrated capacity to weaken Western unity. Furthermore, it discounts the role that political ideology could play in strengthening bonds between Presidents Erdo?an and Putin, both of whom exhibit illiberal, anti-democratic tendencies and have embraced notions of revising the global order. Indeed, ties between Russia and Turkey are but one example of an “axis of the excluded,” (Hill and Ta?pinar 2006) and this paper will make use of the emerging literature on rising powers to the existing order. It will explore motivations for improvement in Turkish-Russian relations, focusing on the post-2015 period. While acknowledging arguments that, on Turkey’s end at least, this is a pragmatic move, one of “assymetric interdependence” (Öni? and Yilmaz 2015), it takes more seriously the possibility that this represents a broader political or ideological shift. It will examine speeches/statements of state officials and reports in the pro-government media in both countries. In particular, it will look for evidence of a shift in discourse and approach after Turkish-Russian ties reached a low in 2015, and assess how leaders in both countries contextualize their relationship within broader foreign policy goals. References Hill, Fiona, and Omer Ta?pinar. 2006. “Turkey and Russia: Axis of the Excluded?” Survival 48.1: 81-92. Öni?, Ziya, and ?uhnaz Yilmaz. 2016. “Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order." Third World Quarterly 37.1: 71-95. Özcan, Gencer, et al, eds. 2017. Ku?ku ile Kom?uluk. Istanbul: Ileti?im.

Over the course of the last 20 years, Turkish-Syrian relations represent one of the most profound cases of position reversals in the realm of foreign policy. From border and water disputes and Syria’s harboring of Kurdistan Workers’ Party leader Abdullah Öcalan that brought the two countries to the brink of war in the late 1990s, relations not only relaxed but became downright cordial in the 2000s. Following the brutal crackdown of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on protesters during the Arab Spring, however, then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an abruptly turned on his former friend to call for his ouster. Erdo?an’s desire to see Assad removed from power extended to the support of Salafi jihadist forces against the Syrian regime as well as a refusal to assist the American forces in the fight against the Islamic State unless the US committed to ensuring that Assad would fall. What best explains these seismic shifts? This paper applies insights from decision-making approaches to parse out the dynamics driving the drastic changes in Turkey’s foreign policy orientation towards Syria throughout the past two decades. While acknowledging the domestic politics incentives present in Turkish decision-making, the paper also explores the less addressed but constitutively relevant roles of social identities and emotions. In articulating its arguments, the paper draws on data collected from fieldwork in Turkey as well as government documents and news and social media sources.

With the global international system in flux, changing from one dominated by the US to a more multipolar system, there is more opportunity for other major actors to impact international interactions. By integrating realist and constructivist approaches to transformations in the international system this paper will analyze the changing structure and patterns of interactions in the regional international system of the Middle East (ME) and their impact on the policy choices the actors are making. Major actors in the system include states such as the U.S., Turkey, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia; quasi-states such as the Kurdish Regional Government; and non-state actors such as the Kurdish groups in Syria, Turkey and Iran as well as al Qaeda and its affiliates. Going back to its founding Turkey has looked to the West as a model of modernization and for security in the international arena especially through NATO. Turkey's alignment with the West and NATO has withstood periods of disagreements such as over Turkey's 1974 invasion of Cyprus and over Iran sanctions. Today there is an ideological shift in the AKP controlled Turkish government away from the West and a clash between Ankara and Washington over their national interests in the ME. Speculation abounds as to whether the U.S. and Turkey can continue to work together when Washington criticizes Ankara's human rights policies and foreign policy choices in strategic hot spots such as Syria and the Persian Gulf, over Russian arms acquisitions, and energy policy in the Mediterranean. The transformations in the global and regional international systems have given Russia renewed opportunity to play more aggressive roles in Eastern Europe as well as in the ME. Europe is also developing more independent policies, as are Saudi Arabia and Iran in the ME. China too is becoming more active on the world stage, though presently its strongest power plays are in the South China Sea. Outside of Asia, China sometimes seeks negotiating roles but most often its search for resources, investments and trade drives its foreign policies. The paper concludes that the transformations in the global and regional ME system have contributed to the increasingly tumultuous nature of the Turkish - U.S. relationship. Washington and Ankara should work harder to develop policies to reduce the tensions resulting from their competing national interests and their handling of identity issues in the ME.

Turkish foreign policy (TFP) has experienced several changes and u-turns in recent decades. When the international system changed from the Cold War to the post-Cold War era, this created new uncertainties and affected numerous economic and political interests. New economic ties and political sensitivities emerged to interact with and shape the constellation of domestic interests. Demands for revised borders or new states in Eurasia and beyond have made national and tribal identities regain legitimacy and relevance. Under the driving force of economic interests and re-surfacing ethno-religious identities, governments began to change their foreign policy orientations and foreign political relations. Turkey, situated in the hub of three of the most volatile regions of the world (the Middle East, the Balkans, the post-Soviet space) was immediately influenced by these changes. Ethnic nationalist (mainly but not exclusively Kurdish) and religious (pious Sunni) demands began to mobilize large swathes of its population. Under their influence, the country has both become more polarized and drifted further to a more conservative, nationalist mentality. Previous foreign policy orientations were increasingly questioned, and the images of the US, Europe, the West more generally began to shift. Many Turkish voters and political actors embraced anti-Western, anti-American, anti-European and anti-NATO discourses. With the erosion of the alliance structures and rigid ties of the Cold War, Turkish economic ties also began to change as corporations began to explore alternative markets in the South, North and East of the country, complementing those of the West. This paper sets out to chart the role that domestic political developments played in the evolution of TFP and the re-making of Turkey’s foreign relations, in particular how they have helped fray Turkey’s ties with the West. It will use available survey data and multivariate analysis to explore how public opinion has evolved on Turkey’s ties with the EU, US, and Middle Eastern countries, and evaluate the effect that the public plays in the general contours of TFP.