This panel addresses an increasingly important area of research in the social sciences: the relationship between violence, the post-conflict environment, and social recovery. The linkages between conflict tactics and peacebuilding strategies are closely connected with various conflicts throughout the MENA region as many return to violence following a period of peace. In this broad approach to understanding conflict and its outcomes, the five papers present new and original research on a number of diverse yet interconnected areas. The authors utilize a mix of both qualitative and quantitative methods and address conflict outcomes in the following cases: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, and Syria.
The panel begins with "Political Competition, Insurgency, and Post-2003 Violence in Iraq," which examines the ways in which rebels are recruited to participate in conflict and the impact of the failed political transition in post-invasion Iraq.
It continues with "Ethnic Cleansing as Military Strategy: Lessons from Lebanon," which presents original research challenging current understanding of the motivation behind ethnic cleansing. Based on fieldwork conducted in Lebanon, the paper demonstrates that ethnic cleansing was used as a strategy to impact recruitment and weaken competitors' positions.
In thinking about resolving conflicts, "The Evolution and Position of the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine: A Middle Eastern and North African based case study" tracks the purpose, failures, and successes of intervention policies amidst civil war. Through in-depth case study research, the author considers the humanitarian impact of the policy and its implications for local populations and finds varying results based on the cases of Libya, Mali, and Syria.
In the post war phase, "Ballots to Bombs: Elections and Cycles of Violence in Post-invasion Iraq" addresses the issue of elections and their impact on rebuilding after conflict. The author finds that state fragility, infiltration by transnational organizations, and regional competition help create "voting to violence" cycles and demonstrates these linkages in the 2005 and 2010 Iraqi elections.
The panel concludes with "Translating Conflict: Contemporary Women's Poetry from Herat, Afghanistan," which presents the author's original translations of poetry from six contemporary women poets in Herat who have lived through decades of conflict. Linking poetry to the historical and cultural context of Afghanistan, the author presents an inside view of the impact of conflict on society and the challenges of rebuilding.
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Mr. Jonathan Barsness
Following the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, broad consensus surrounded the notion that political violence and civil war had been largely driven by ethnic and religious antagonisms. Yet, in global terms, recent literature provides evidence that the civil wars that proliferated at the end of the Cold War era are better explained by conditions that favor insurgency rather than ethnic or religious characteristics. In attempting to understand post-invasion violence in Iraq, particularly in the years 2004 – 2007, this paper builds upon two prominent strands of research. First, I evaluate recent literature that explores the conditions under which ethnic, religious, and cultural cleavages become politically salient. Second, within the context of Iraq, I examine the ways in which political factors associated with weak states and instability—including poverty, large populations, displaced persons, and additional human development indicators—contribute to rebel recruitment. Relying upon the theoretical and empirical claims of past approaches, this paper considers the linkages between levels of violence and the US-led political transition process. Particularly, this research focuses on the connection between levels of violence, dissatisfaction among Iraq’s diverse ethnic, religious, and sectarian groups, and emerging realms of political contest. In assessing the volatility of Iraqi society during periods of political transition, this analysis reveals the impact and importance of the US-directed political transition process, including efforts to: (a) establish an Iraqi Interim Government and hold elections; (b) structure security policy; (c) influence the development of the Iraqi constitution; and (d) integrate or isolate key religious and political leaders into the emerging political system. Upon a critical examination of the above factors, this study argues that the inability of the United States and Coalition partners to quickly and effectively implement an inclusive political transition process increased the probability of violence and instability throughout Iraq. Moreover, rather than overemphasizing the ethnic and religious dynamics of post-2003 violence in Iraq, conflict is more accurately understood through political competition and conditions that favor insurgency.
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Dr. Nils Hagerdal
Established accounts of the Lebanese civil war 1975-1990 fall short in accounting for its bestial incidents of ethnic cleansing. Models of irregular warfare are becoming increasingly sophisticated but do not apply to this setting of largely conventional warfare, which also defies the predictions of ethnic security dilemmas and theories focusing on the creation of homogenous ethnic homelands. To rectify this shortcoming I introduce a new explanation showing how ethnic cleansing can be used by political and military elites ferociously attacking each others’ social and military base of support in a setting where supporters can be easily identified. This new theory draws on recent work in political science that emphasizes the important role and powerful effects of social ties of support with the local population on wartime combatants including in terms of fighting capabilities.
The paper subsequently tests this explanation by examining how well it explains the observed outcomes of violence against and displacement of civilians during the outbreak of civil war in Lebanon, 1975-90. This episode of the war witnessed many massacres and severe forced displacement but the observed patterns do not correlate closely with sectarian demography, imagined ethnic homelands, easily available loot, or other common explanations. I aim to show that focusing on the social foundations of prominent military rivals can explain this anomaly.
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Lyndall Herman
The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine emerged during the early 2000’s, in response to the massive civilian death tolls from the Rwandan genocide and massacres such as Srebrenica that occurred during the Balkan wars. R2P doctrine dictates that not only does the state have the responsibility to protect it’s population, but that the international community has the responsibility to prevent the outbreak of violent internal conflict, the responsibility to react to the outbreak of any violent conflict in a timely manner (“reaction” can include the use of sanctions, international law, or military intervention), and the responsibility to assist in rebuilding following any violent conflict. However, since the doctrine’s introduction in the early 2000’s and its overall international acceptance in 2005, the patchy implementation on a case-by-case basis, has tarnished its name and character. This patchy implementation, coupled with an overstretch of the intentions and applicability of the doctrine to include, according to some academics, a “Responsibility to Prevent” (Feinstein & Slaughter, 2004) and a “Responsibility to Counter Terrorism” (Etzioni, 2013) has left the doctrine at loose ends and many pondering the future applicability and usefulness of this mechanism.
By exploring the most recent applications, and non-applications, of R2P doctrine in the Middle Eastern and North African region, this paper addresses to what extent, if at all, the R2P doctrine (and it’s offshoots) have a humanitarian-oriented role in directing policy and involvement in the region. The alternative proposal addressed in this paper is that the R2P doctrine, as it has become more widely accepted within the international community, has become a tool for individual states to augment and boost their various national security policy’s, rather than to pursue an humanitarian-oriented intervention strategy. Throughout this paper three recent and ongoing conflicts in the Middle Eastern and North African region will be addressed. The use and publicization of the R2P doctrine in relation to international intervention in these three conflicts will be discussed, and lead to a conclusion regarding the efficacy of the R2P doctrine in guiding future “humanitarian interventions.” The three conflicts to be analyzed include: the 2011 NATO-led intervention in Libya, the 2013 French-led intervention in Mali, and the lack of military intervention in Syria since the uprising began in early 2011 and the country descended into civil war.
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Christina Sciabarra
It is often assumed that rebuilding and recovering states should hold elections quickly in order to rapidly democratize the state, but post-election violence is often a common occurrence in these states. Some have argued that holding elections too early can actually destabilize the state and undermine the development that democratization is meant to encourage (Brancati and Snyder 2011). The American invasion of Iraq caused destruction, chaos, and insecurity, but it also resulted in national elections, which were subsequently followed by increases in violence. How are the elections directly related to the violence? Why aren’t elections resulting in stability in Iraq – what are the underlying problems? Using the failed states framework, I identify the conditions which contributed to the outbreaks of violence and find a link with national elections, which ultimately results in a “voting to violence” cycle. I consider the 2005 and 2010 national elections and explain how their processes and outcomes are linked to the eventual increases in violence. This paper accounts for boycotts, power-sharing measures, the security situation, and additional factors that impact election outcomes. I utilize existing polling data and casualty rates and conduct original research utilizing various media reports. Additionally, I account for regional factors which include conflict in neighboring states, links with transnational organizations, and connections with competing states. Finally, I conclude with recommendations for breaking the cycle in the 2014 election.
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Ms. Felisa (Farzana) Hervey
This paper features literary translations of the Persian (Dari) poetry of six contemporary women poets from the city of Herat, Afghanistan. Alongside samples of their work, the presentation places this literary selection in context, arguing for its importance as a form of socio-political protest, identity assertion, and resilience solidification in the aftermath of decades of violence and oppression. The selection includes only poetry published post-2001, or after the fall of the Taliban, under whose regime women were specifically barred from education and publishing written work. Throughout that dark period, and even earlier during years of conflict and insecurity beginning with the 1978 Saur Revolution and the Soviet invasion, many Afghan women pursued their education and developed their literary talents in secret. My presentation begins with an overview of the historic importance of Herat as an artistic and literary center in the region, acknowledging the powerful cultural influence of the poetic arts in Afghanistan, especially as means of expressing dissent. Using samples of poetry from each of six prominent Herati women poets (Nadia Anjuman, Fariba Haidari, Fereshta Nilab Sahel Noorzayi, Somaya Ramesh, Elaha Sahel, and Roya Sharifi), I demonstrate multiple strategies that make this poetry an active means of confronting, processing, and surviving the various effects of the conflict environment experienced by Afghan women. The process of translating these poems, then, is not only a literary and linguistic exercise, but one that, in order to be effective, requires a profound understanding not only of the cultural and historical context, but of the individual and collective trauma of war and gender-based violence. Translating poetry produced in conflict or its aftermath is, in some ways, akin to translating conflict itself, as re-lived, grieved, challenged, or overcome in the verses of Afghanistan’s contemporary women poets.
