Political Succession in the Arab World: Family, Clan, Sect, and Generational Divide
Panel 152, sponsored byMESA IM: American University in Cairo, 2010 Annual Meeting
On Saturday, November 20 at 05:00 pm
Panel Description
Political discourse in many Arab societies has been increasingly focusing on the issue of political succession. As a growing number of Arab rulers are getting older the elites and the public at large are showing signs of concern and anxiety regarding the future.
The debate is often intensified by the efforts of some Arab leaders to install their sons in positions of power in preparation for the day when they would replace them as heads of states. In Syria, Hafez Assad succeeded in preparing the grounds for his son Bashar to become president after his death in July 2000. Other Arab leaders among them Mubarak, Qadhafi, and Saleh are anxious to see their sons after them walk in their footsteps and fulfill their long entertained dream of perpetuating their legacy in power.
A major factor which seemed to make the process of planning succession ahead of time, a plausible suggestion, is the fact that during the last four decades, some Arab regimes enjoyed unprecedented length of survival, and a relative measure of stability. Compared to the earlier decades of the 1950s and 1960s, which were plagued with recurring military coups, counter coups, insurrections, and domestic upheavals, recent decades were more conducive to the perpetuation of the present leadership in power. Arab leaders were enabled to consolidate their position, and gained considerable self confidence to introduce their sons into the highest positions of power and influence.
Furthermore, in time, they were able to strengthen the status of their entourage, members of their extended family, their clan, and in some cases the religious sect they belonged to, in the state apparatus, the army, the ruling party, the media, and even in the newly founded NGOs.
Participants in the panel will consist of chairman, a discussant, and four presenters. The first paper will attempt to examine the commonalities among the variety of Arab regimes in relationship to political succession. Its purpose is to offer an overview of the topic. It will be followed by three presentations. Two of the presentations will be case studies of prospects of succession in two Arab "republics". For purposes of comparison the third presentation will be a case study of succession in one of the Arab kingdoms to determine if the process takes a similar trend as in the republics or it has its own peculiarities.
Cosmopolitan, often English-speaking, and typically conversant in the language of civil society and democracy, the heirs apparent in many of the countries of the Arab world--republics and monarchies alike--are caught between their lip service (and perhaps genuine attachment) to the liberal political values of their elite education and their reliance on the patronage machines constructed by their fathers in an era that prized socialism, nationalism and state-building. Under what circumstances can individuals whose access to power is a reflection of their familial or personal connections be relied on to create the genuinely representative institutions they seem to advocatet Drawing on cases from across the region, as well as insitances of pivotal figures outside the region, like Spain's King Juan Carlos, but looking particularly at the tensions that attend Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi's ambivalent pursuit of authority and responsibility in Libya, this paper examines the prospects for political succession in a region characterized by aging leaders and uncertain institutions.
In the context of a panel about dynastic succession rather than democratic transitions, this paper takes a comparative and international perspective. First it surveys the landscape, particularly of Arab republics, to see where heads of states seem to be grooming their sons or other relatives or cronies to assume leadership. In addition to the Moroccan and Jordanian kingdoms and the Syrian republic where sons have already replaced their fathers and the Gulf monarchies where members of royal families are expected to replace an aging generation, the Egyptian and Yemeni presidents seem inclined to enthrone their sons. Lebanon is a special case where party rather than national leadership often transfers to brothers or other family members. Tunisia, Algeria, Libya and Sudan are worth investigating. (Are there perchance any daughters in the wings, as in Pakistan?) Secondly the paper will consider whether the United States and Europe have addressed issues of succession, and if so in what ways and to what possible effects. Are there patterns of contacts with favored sons of the Gulf's royal families or ruling families in the republicsc Is Yemen the only case where American aid has supported an institution, the Republican Guard, headed by the president's heir apparantr Conversely do democracy promotion policies or diplomatic communications favor democratic processes over potentially destabilizing transitionsi
The central theme of discussion in present day Egypt in the local media, intellectual circles, and social gatherings is largely concerned with the issue of political succession. The debate has been intensified since the return of Mohamed El-Baradei to Cairo last February after serving as head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and declaring on his arrival his intention to fight the battle of constitutional reform against the Mubarak regime. The discourse gained further momentum a few months later when President Mubarak went through a successful gallbladder operation in Germany at the age of 82.
The international press and media sources were similarly drawn into the discussion, and speculation on who is to succeed Mubarak and how soon became a major topic of deliberation. The name of the president's son, Gamal Mubarak figured high on the list of potential contenders, but there were other valid candidates for the post whose names were suggested and discussed.
Among these candidates were El-Baradei, Omar Suleiman, Egypt's head of general intelligence, Amr Musa, general secretary of the Arab League, and a few others.
The purpose of my presentation is to consider how far the process of succession has gone in favor of Gamal Mubarak and make an assessment of how relevant is the discussion today of the potential chances that other candidates have. Bearing in mind that Gamal is perhaps the prime if not the only realistic choice for succession there are two important questions which I will try to address. How realistic is the assumption made by many commentators that he may ascend to power during his father's lifetime? and secondly, once at the helm will the young Mubarak be able to assert himself and his authority successfully on a very tough security sector in Egypt's state apparatus.
